The Croatian national team, according to calculations by the analytical platform Football Meets Data, has the highest probability among all teams in the elite group of the League of Nations to finish in the play-offs. The model gives Croatia a 46 per cent chance of having to play two additional matches in March 2027.
Behind Croatia is Serbia with 43 per cent, while Greece and Wales have 42 per cent each. Turkey is at 41 per cent, Italy at 39 per cent, the Czech Republic at 29 per cent, Denmark at 28 per cent, and Belgium at 25 per cent.
Croatia is in Group A3 with Spain, England, and the Czech Republic. The same model estimates that Croatia has a 62.2 per cent chance of finishing third in the group, a 19.4 per cent chance of finishing last, a 15.5 per cent chance of finishing second, and a 2.9 per cent chance of winning the group. The chance of one of the top two positions and qualifying for the quarter-finals is 18.4 per cent in total.
UEFA is introducing a major change to the League of Nations from the 2028/29 edition, when the current four leagues will be replaced by three leagues of 18 teams each. For the 2026/27 season, a special promotion and relegation system has been introduced. League A has 16 teams divided into four groups of four, with each team playing six matches, one at home and one away against each opponent.
The top two teams from each group, eight in total, advance to the quarter-finals. The quarter-finals are played over two legs in March 2027, with the four winners advancing to the final tournament in June. The two best third-placed teams remain in League A, while the two worst third-placed teams go into the play-offs. Eight teams in total participate in the League A/B play-offs: the two worst third-placed teams from League A and the two best second-placed teams from League B. The draw pairs teams from League A with the second-placed teams from League B. Teams from League A are the favourites, playing two matches, at home and away. The team from the lower division hosts the first match. The four winners of these ties will play in League A in the next edition, while the four losing teams will be relegated to League B. The play-offs are scheduled for 25-30 March 2027.
The Czech Republic and Croatia play their first match of the group stage in the highest tier of the League of Nations today at 20:45. This will be the first match for Slaven Bilic in his second term, and also the first match for Croatia after falling to Portugal in the round of 16 at the World Cup. The broadcast is on Nova TV.
According to the official list published by UEFA, none of the players are available for the match against the Czech Republic: Kristian Jakić, Marin Pongračić, and Petar Musa are out. Martin Baturin (23) is out due to a viral infection. Head coach Slaven Bilic and his staff have not included the offensive midfielder from Italian club Como, who has been suffering from a high temperature in recent days. Baturin was expected to start, but entered the season with three goals and two assists in six matches.
Slaven Bilic is visiting Prague for the first match of his second term with Croatia. It will be the first match for the Czech national team under the guidance of Spanish coach Santi Denia. The match was announced by captain Ladislav Krejčí. If he plays against Croatia, the 27-year-old defender will lead the Czech team with the captain's armband. The Czech Football Association has turned to a foreign coach for the first time in its history.
Slaven Bilich has 26 players on his list, with three players in doubt for the match today. Luka Modrić had a temperature and missed training on Thursday, while Martin Baturin, also due to a temperature, did not train on Friday. The identity of the third player with a problem was not revealed by Bilich. Injuries ruled out Josip Juranović and Martin Erlić, while the reserves were activated for Kristian Jakić, Marin Pongračić, and Lovro Majer.
Croatia faces four matches in this international break. After tonight's match against the Czech Republic, on 29 September at 20:45, there is a trip to Spain. On 3 October at 18:00, Croatia hosts England at the Ruževica Stadium in Rijeka, and on 6 October at 20:45, they play against Spain at the Poljud Stadium in Split.
The international window runs from 21 September to 6 October. FIFA has changed the calendar, merging the previous separate September and October dates into a single 16-day block, during which teams can play four matches. The new international calendar for the period 2025 to 2030 was adopted in 2023. The next international break will be from 9 to 17 November, and will again last for nine days, with at most two matches.
