Greece and Turkey are accusing each other of responsibility for the growing tensions between the two countries. The dispute centres on territorial waters, territorial claims and influence in the Mediterranean, with tensions further inflamed by statements from officials on both sides.
Greece has complained about violations of its airspace, Turkish national parks at sea which it considers illegal, and the movement of Turkish troops along the coast. In response, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has called on Greece to cease its 'militarisation' of the islands, while the Turkish foreign minister has spoken of a security threat to Turkey.
An emeritus professor of international security at the University of Piraeus, Mary Bossis, warns of an escalating and threatening rhetoric from both the Turkish and Greek sides. The Greek government is relying on deterrence, and in late August Greece signed a multi-million pound arms deal with Israel, known as 'Achilles' Shield'. This is a comprehensive air defence system, while Greece is simultaneously investing in its own defence industry.
A Greek analyst and journalist, John Psaropoulos, believes that this is solely a matter of self-defence. He laments that little attention is paid to the conflict with Turkey in Europe and Germany. Greece views Turkey as a potential Russia, and the perception of threat that Europe currently has towards Russia is one that Greece has long held towards Turkey. This perception has a long history, dating back to the time of the Ottoman Empire, and in recent decades Greece and Turkey have clashed repeatedly over various issues in the Aegean, particularly following the Turkish invasion of Cyprus in 1974.
Ronald Meinardus, who has a doctorate on the subject and has lived in Greece for a long time, working as a researcher at the Athens-based think tank ELIAMEP, states that there is no consensus on what is actually at issue, nor on how these disputed points should be resolved. The conflict is in a stalemate. For the Greek government, the right to extend territorial waters around the Aegean islands to 12 nautical miles is clear, and this right is permitted by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Turkey fears that, due to the large number of Greek islands, international waters in the Aegean Sea could be significantly reduced, thereby restricting Turkish maritime traffic.
Turkey speaks of certain 'grey zones' where the sovereignty over individual islands and uninhabited islets is not clarified. From a Greek perspective, the status of 'grey zones' is clearly regulated. Observer Meinardus considers that Turkey is deliberately applying a strategy of expanding the number of disputed issues. The status quo, in fact, is in the interest of Greece, but according to Meinardus, Turkey wishes to change it, and Turkey is a revisionist power.
Greek observers point to the Turkish doctrine of 'Blue Homeland', which is due to be debated in parliament soon. The doctrine provides for a significant expansion of Turkish zones of influence in the Mediterranean, with critics speaking of neo-Ottoman expansionist plans. Politologist Hüseyin Bağcı from Ankara seeks to calm the situation. He states that a military conflict between Turkey and Greece is unlikely, as both sides are members of NATO. He adds that this is a family dispute and should be resolved within NATO, but also within the European Union. Turkey has sent just over 2,000 troops to the coastal region south of Izmir, but President Erdoğan is not interested in war, according to Bağcı.
Experts agree that much is driven by domestic politics. In Greece, elections are held in the spring, and Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis does not wish to appear weak. The time of 'calm waters', as the period of easing relations following Erdoğan's visit to Athens in 2023 was called, is over.
