AI-driven malicious software is "very likely" to be used in hacking attacks on UK power stations, airports and hospitals by 2028, the national cybersecurity body has said. The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) stated that artificial intelligence is likely to enable ransomware attacks on critical national infrastructure between now and 2028.
The UK definition of critical national infrastructure covers a range of facilities and services in sectors such as energy, transport, defence, food, health and finance. The NCSC warning, issued by the body operating within the intelligence agency GCHQ, was published in the organisation's annual review. The same document warned that Russia and China would begin to "routinely" use artificial intelligence in cyberattacks.
"It is very likely that between now and 2028, AI-driven malicious software will be used in a ransomware attack on UK critical national infrastructure," the NCSC said. Ransomware has become a staple of criminal hackers' repertoire and a recognisable tool for gangs that typically operate from former Soviet states. After gaining access to victims' computer systems, attackers encrypt files with purpose-built malicious software and then demand payment in cryptocurrency to unlock paralysed systems and return stolen data. Among UK ransomware victims are Royal Mail, outsourcing firm Capita and various public bodies, including local authorities.
Artificial intelligence is expected to enhance the ransomware threat by helping attackers with tasks such as target reconnaissance, finding weaknesses in computer networks and writing malicious code, the NCSC noted. Last month, the government urged Britons to stock up on up to nine litres of bottled water and three days' worth of food so that households could survive a weather, cyber or other serious crisis. Defence Secretary Wes Streeting said at the launch of the Be Ready campaign that Britain must prepare for the threat of "state-sponsored terrorism" from Russia or other hostile forces targeting everyday infrastructure.
NCSC chief executive Richard Horne will warn the public in a speech accompanying the review on Tuesday that artificial intelligence will trigger a wave of cyberattacks in the near future. "In the coming months we face a real possibility of an unprecedented increase in the number of cyber incidents," he will say. Horne will attribute the threat to the technology's ability to uncover weaknesses in computer systems that have been "tolerated for too long".
An example of AI's ability to dig up previously undiscovered vulnerabilities emerged last month, when the technology helped identify a critical flaw in PHP, the programming language used by almost 70 per cent of the world's websites. Alan Woodward, professor of cybersecurity at the University of Surrey, said the NCSC warning highlights the need for states and companies to have access to the most advanced artificial intelligence technology. "AI can help people find those flaws and patch them, but if we don't get access, the bad guys will outpace us," he said. So far, leading AI firms such as OpenAI and Anthropic have given some companies advanced access to their most powerful models to help them identify serious computer errors.
Horne will also say in his speech that the communication networks used by the British military are exposed to daily attacks that are "persistent" and "continuous". He will state that Russia is one of the perpetrators, but that the attacks have deliberately not crossed the line into warfare, with Moscow conducting "significant campaigns" that "deliberately remain below the threshold of armed conflict while escalating their hybrid warfare efforts". He will add that recent cyberattacks on supermarket refrigerators in Europe, during which hackers raised the temperature of fridges to more than 50 degrees Celsius, serve as a warning to companies and organisations to invest heavily in cyber resilience. "For decades we have collectively got away with cheap technology," he will say.
