Dinamo moved up to ninth place in the Europa League standings with a 2-0 victory over Sunderland in the fourth round. The Zagreb side has seven points after four matches, with two wins, a draw and a defeat, along with a goal difference of 5:4.
Dinamo is separated from eighth place, which guarantees direct qualification for the round of 16, only by goal difference. In the first four rounds, Dinamo drew 0-0 with Hapoel Beer Sheva, beat Anderlecht 1-0, lost to NEC 2-4 and defeated Sunderland 2-0. Beşiktaş, Levski Sofia, Sunderland, NEC and Lyon currently have the same number of points, but the Zagreb team has a better goal difference than most of those clubs.
In the league phase of the Europa League, 36 clubs compete, with each team playing eight matches. The top eight on the final table qualify directly for the round of 16 and skip the additional knockout round played in February. Teams finishing from ninth to 24th place play a playoff for the round of 16, while clubs placed from 25th to 36th end their European season.
Last season, Dinamo finished the league phase in 23rd place with 10 points, with three wins, one draw and four defeats, and a goal difference of 12:16. In the additional knockout round, they were eliminated by Belgian side Genk, with an aggregate score of 6:4. Last season, the final 24th place leading to the playoff was taken by Brann with nine points, while Young Boys, with the same number of points, remained below the line due to a worse goal difference.
According to a simulation by Football Meets Data after the fourth round, the Croatian champions are among the 24 teams that would advance to the knockout phase. The model gives Dinamo an 82 per cent chance of qualifying among the top 24 teams, while the chances of direct entry into the round of 16, i.e. finishing among the top eight, are 8.7 per cent.
If last season's threshold of 16 points were repeated, Dinamo would need to win nine more points in the remaining four matches, which could be achieved, for example, with three wins. Until the end of the league phase, Dinamo will play four more matches: on 26 November they will host Bayer Leverkusen at Maksimir, on 10 December they will visit Rennes, on 21 January they will visit AZ Alkmaar and on 28 January they will play a home match against Sturm.
Dinamo has already won seven of last season's 10 points after half of the league phase. The win in Sunderland also improved their goal difference, which could be important in the case of an equal number of points with other clubs.
