The Ukrainian armed forces have taken operational and strategic initiative on the battlefield, significantly altering the current balance of forces. This shift follows offensive actions carried out in the Kursk region, marking a turning point in the course of the conflict. Ukrainian forces have launched successful counter-attacks on key axes, including the areas of Kupiansk, Oleksandrivka, and Lyman, halting the advance of Russian units.
The most significant turnaround has been observed in the Lyman sector in the Donetsk region, where the Russian offensive has met with significant failure. The Ukrainian military has managed to destroy the Russian wedge that threatened the security of key strongholds, including the cities of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka. This strategic victory is the result of a counter-offensive operation conducted in strict secrecy from May, which caught the enemy by surprise and effectively repelled the attack.
Russian forces have been pushed back from a total of 240 square kilometres of territory, representing a significant loss of territorial gains made in the previous period. The Russian command is currently considering withdrawing surviving elements of the 25th and 20th combined arms armies from the Lyman direction, indicating the seriousness of the situation on the ground. The Russian military has been attempting, without success, to advance in this area since the autumn of 2022, further complicating Moscow's strategic position.
Alongside territorial changes on the ground, internal tensions are emerging within the Russian military. Russian commanders are pressing President Vladimir Putin to declare a new mass mobilisation. This need for additional forces stems from the fact that the Russian military, despite numerous attempts, has failed to achieve its objectives on the battlefield, indicating deep challenges facing the Russian military machine in the current conflict.
