In the snap parliamentary elections in Serbia, scheduled for 25 October, the Students' list would win 44.5 per cent of the vote according to the latest survey, while the list of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), headed by former Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić, would be supported by 42.7 per cent of voters. The survey was published on Tuesday and conducted by Nova srpska politička misao (NSPM), a Belgrade political journal for political theory and social research, in a telephone poll of a representative sample of 1,050 respondents from 25 September to 5 October. The results were published on the NSPM website.
According to turnout data, 79.8 per cent of respondents stated they would definitely go to the polls, while 13.3 per cent answered that they would 'probably' go. Two per cent of respondents were unsure whether they would participate, 3.2 per cent 'definitely would not' go, and 1.7 per cent did not answer or had no clear stance on going to the polling stations.
When asked which electoral list they would vote for if the elections were held next week, among those with a preference, 44.6 per cent would vote for the 'Students' List - Students Win', while 42.7 per cent support the SNS list 'Aleksandar Vučić - United Serbia'. Ivica Dačić's Serbian Socialist Party (SPS) would receive 2.9 per cent of the vote, the opposition coalition list European Serbia 2.7 per cent, and the conservative-right coalition Authentic Right 2.5 per cent. Other lists would receive two per cent. All other lists, excluding minority ones, are currently below the three per cent electoral threshold. 18.3 per cent of people do not know or will not say who they will vote for.
The results confirm previous assessments by numerous analysts that a referendum-like atmosphere is emerging within the electorate after 14 years of SNS rule, with the Students' list and the ruling Progressives' list set to be the key players. Estimates suggest that high turnout should benefit the student movement's list, while the SNS is said to have its own 1.2 to 1.5 million voters.
NSPM editor Đorđe Vukadinović states that this is a regular autumn survey of political public opinion, and not an 'anticipation' or projection of election results. Vukadinović says the results indicate a polarised atmosphere. The course of the campaign so far, the denial of the opportunity for thousands of people in the diaspora to vote, and electoral procedures that have not undergone necessary reforms for a long time have fuelled doubts that the vote will be accompanied by possible manipulations and abuses. The existence of tens of thousands of so-called 'phantom' voters is mentioned.
The single voter register in Serbia was officially closed with a total number of 6,450,523 voters. Serbia has 6,647,003 inhabitants according to the October 2022 census. The difference indicates that there are only 196,480 inhabitants in Serbia who are under 18 years old and therefore do not have the right to vote.
