Relations between the United States and Ukraine are tense after the Donald Trump administration suspended the approval of new aid packages to Ukraine in early 2025. Kyiv accused Washington of withholding key military aid, while Trump criticised Zelensky for what he considers a lack of willingness to negotiate an end to the war.
Despite the suspension of new packages, some US weapons ordered during Joe Biden's term are still arriving in Ukraine. According to data from the German Institute for World Economics in Kiel, the US has provided Ukraine with at least $131.5 billion in total aid since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, remaining the largest individual donor. The European Union and its member states have, according to the same data, secured at least $228.5 billion in aid, meaning Europe has taken on a larger share of the financial burden of supporting Kyiv. Among EU members that have allocated the most military aid are Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden, with significant contributions also coming from the United Kingdom and Norway. Part of European support comes in the form of purchasing US weapons, which European states then send to Ukraine, with transfers of US weapons from Europe to Ukraine requiring approval from the US Department of Defence.
Ukraine continues to rely heavily on US military technology, intelligence data and certain key defence systems. These include Patriot missile defence systems, Starshield satellite communication infrastructure and advanced technologies for warning of missile attacks. One of the biggest problems for Ukraine's air defence is the lack of interceptor missiles for Patriot systems. Zelensky warned that deliveries of missiles that had already been agreed were delayed, and during one of the recent Russian attacks on Kyiv, no ballistic missile was intercepted. Ukrainian authorities warn of difficulties caused by interruptions or limitations in US support, while Russian attacks continue.
Zelensky previously reported that Ukraine had not received US intelligence warnings about possible ballistic attacks on several occasions. According to Ukrainian officials, due to the lack of warnings, some Russian attacks hit targets without timely warning to the population. The US State Department and Trump rejected claims that Washington had limited intelligence data sharing, and Zelensky later stated that data exchange was functioning again. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence announced that full access to the Starshield system had been re-established, but it was not immediately clear whether the changes had been felt in all areas of the country. Speed and usage limitations of satellite communications had disrupted the operation of interceptor drones and complicated military operations in parts of the front line. Trump and certain senior officials in his administration denied ordering restrictions on Ukrainian access to the Starshield system, while Elon Musk rejected claims that he had independently decided on the restrictions, stating that the US military decides on restrictions, with the final say resting with the US President.
According to analysts, the US can influence Ukraine in three main areas: economic, military and political. Max Bergmann, director of the Russia programme at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, stated that European states do not have adequate replacements for some of those US capabilities. Bergmann believes that further interruptions in US support could have severe consequences for Ukraine, including greater economic damage, a higher number of civilian casualties and further displacement of the population, but he doubts that such a development would in itself break Ukraine's will to continue fighting. Natia Seskuria from the British institute RUSI believes that US pressure on Kyiv gives the Kremlin hope that the continuation of the war will eventually weaken European determination to help Ukraine, while John Lough from the New Eurasian Strategies Center warns that Washington's latest moves further highlight the divergence between the US and Europe.
The Trump administration postponed the implementation of new sanctions against Russia this month and allowed the export of Russian diesel, with Trump blaming Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries for rising fuel prices. Moscow has not abandoned its maximalist demands for ending the war. Zelensky stated that Ukraine needs more concrete support from allies, including the delivery of more advanced missiles and the continuation of sanctions against Russia. He told CNN: 'If we cannot get Starshield at normal speed to defend ourselves, we will survive and remain strong.'
