The International Monetary Fund has published new, less optimistic forecasts for the Croatian economy. According to the October edition of the World Economic Outlook, gross domestic product is expected to rise by 2.2 per cent in 2026, compared to the IMF’s previous forecast of 2.6 per cent.
This represents a 0.4 percentage point reduction in the forecast for this year. For 2027, the IMF now estimates growth in the Croatian economy at 2.3 per cent, a reduction in the forecast by 0.3 percentage points compared to April, when growth of 2.6 per cent was predicted for both years. According to the latest IMF estimates, the Croatian economy grew by 3.4 per cent in 2025.
The IMF published its new autumn economic forecasts on Tuesday, 13 October. In addition to growth, inflation estimates have also been revised. The IMF now expects that average annual inflation in Croatia during 2026 will be 4.5 per cent, compared to a forecast of 4.4 per cent in April. For 2027, the IMF predicts inflation of 3.3 per cent, up from the previously expected 2.7 per cent.
The data on price movements also comes from the State Institute of Statistics, which published the first estimate that consumer prices in September 2026 were 4.7 per cent higher than in September of the previous year.
Regarding the labour market, the IMF estimates that the unemployment rate in Croatia during 2026 should be 4.5 per cent. For 2027, a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.6 per cent is forecast.
