Passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most dangerous journeys a ship can undertake. Despite assistance from the US Navy, ships are still being attacked, warns former merchant navy officer and maritime consultant Steve Cameron.
Cameron highlights that transit through the Strait of Hormuz requires an agreement between the captain and the crew on assuming the risk. War risk insurance is also necessary, and the final decision must be made by the captain. Threats come from the air in the form of missiles and drones, but also from below the surface where mines lie in wait. Modern mines rest on the seabed and detonate when they detect an acoustic or magnetic signal, triggering a pressure wave that will break the keel of a passing ship. Some mines can rise through shallow waters or float, or be propelled towards a target. The technology itself is neither difficult nor expensive, but the threat alone can stop a fleet of tankers from setting sail.
Ian McFarlane of French defence group Thales, a naval architect who knows mine warfare well, says that mines are a very cheap way of waging naval war, of which the Royal Navy is fully aware. Finding sea mines has traditionally been the job of specialised mine-hunting vessels, with crews of around 80 sailors. To keep people away from danger, an increasing share of the work is being carried out by autonomous systems monitored from shore. Autonomous systems may require only 20 people working in shifts on land. Given the recruitment and retention challenges facing NATO navies, these highly portable robotic systems are very attractive. Such technology has been developing for 20 years.
During the 2003 Iraq War, the US Navy searched the seabed for mines using the torpedo-shaped robot Remus 100. The Remus 100 operated to a depth of about 100 feet. The latest conflict in the Gulf is testing much more capable systems. The US military is tight-lipped about details of its mine-hunting vessels. Iranian forces retrieved an American uncrewed autonomous submarine from the waters of the Strait of Hormuz in early September. The Pentagon claimed that the robot, the Extra Large Uncrewed Underwater Vehicle (XLUUV) from American autonomous defence firm Anduril, was a faulty older device without classified equipment. William Lupton, a maritime analyst at the Shephard Group, says the seizure was a drop in the ocean compared to taking prisoners.
NATO navies are reluctant to go into details, but computer disks can be wiped or destroyed remotely in various ways. Cooperation between Thales, the Royal Navy and the French Marine Nationale has resulted in a robotic motorboat. Thales’ uncrewed surface vessel (USV) is packed with sensors programmed to detect mines using sonar developed for the oil and gas industry. Thales’ USV tows a 5-metre-long rectangular box, similar to a large torpedo, which records the seabed in high resolution and creates a 3D image enhanced by artificial intelligence. The latest mines are designed to blend into their surroundings, and the software spots anything that looks like a mine. Autonomous systems are cheaper than conventional mine-hunters and can be deployed, along with containerised control centres, by air.
Steve Prest, a senior fellow at defence think tank RUSI, introduced uncrewed mine-hunting to the Royal Navy and was its first officer for the robotic fleet, a title he obtained in 2014. Prest says there are a number of ways to search for mines using robotic boats or robotic submarines, and while you cannot prove a negative, that there is no mine, you can reduce the risk. Prest adds that American robotic mine-hunters can either lift a mine into the air or simply mark a location as something to be avoided. In his words, we will see more use of autonomy, but missions and capabilities will also expand. Prest notes that artificial intelligence will analyse data from these vessels on the spot, rather than when the drone returns. The Royal Navy recently announced a concept of a hybrid navy – mixing drones with conventional warships. Prest believes that for this vision to succeed, the fleet must act as one distributed force, sharing data in what he calls a cognitive architecture. He says a robot makes a real difference only as part of that system and that it is a mistake to focus on individual uncrewed assets. According to him, uncrewed or autonomous vessels are not an operational system; they are applications that run on it.
Neil Roberts, a spokesperson for Lloyd’s in London on maritime issues, says the psychological effect of the mine threat is inevitable, as is the uncertainty over how many mines, if any, are there. The United States claims it has cleared the Omani route and believes the mine threat is under control, with shipments running at about 75 per cent of pre-conflict levels. Fear of the unknown is the strongest aspect of the sea mine threat, and robots are now the weapon of choice for confronting that fear.
