Voting has closed at 10:00pm in the London constituency of Holborn and St Pancras, with the result expected between 02:30 and 04:00 on Friday. Labour is seeking to hold the former seat of Keir Starmer in north London, where Starer secured a majority of over 11,000 votes in the 2024 general election.
The by-election is seen as a barometer of the political landscape under Andy Burnham, just three months after he assumed the role of prime minister, and as the first significant test for Burnham, who succeeded Starmer in July. It is also seen as a test of whether Burnham can unite Labour voters, or if Zack Polanski can peel off support from the party's left wing.
The contest is part of a broader battle for younger left-wing voters who have become disillusioned with the party under Starmer's leadership over issues such as housing, the climate crisis, and the war in Gaza. Polanski has sought to lead a vigorous campaign, including through thousands of activists, and left the Green conference early after his speech to demonstrate that he and the Greens are a serious rival to Labour, despite the latest polls.
The Greens are hoping to replicate their victory in the by-elections in Gorton and Denton in February, where they overturned the Labour majority. Shortly after that victory in Greater Manchester, a YouGov poll placed the Greens on 21 per cent, a few points ahead of Labour. The latest YouGov poll placed the Greens 16 points behind Burnham's Labour, which was on 27 per cent. That poll was published while Burnham was at his first Labour conference, where he proposed a more ambitious approach to the progressives.
Holborn and St Pancras has a large number of students, young voters, and tenants, with almost half of the population aged between 18 and 34, while around 45 per cent were born abroad. Polanski argues that his election would increase pressure on Labour to implement radical policies, including stricter control of rents, greater action on the climate crisis, and public ownership of Thames Water.
The Green leader faced questions about his own authority and accusations that he was unable to articulate his stance on proposals that had become party policy at the conference. In an interview with the Guardian last Friday, Polanski described the contest as 'probably 50:50' and 'right on the knife edge', while simultaneously stating that his leadership did not depend on victory. When asked if a defeat in the by-election would undermine his position, Polanski said: 'It doesn't depend on that at all.'
Senior Greens privately fear that a defeat could seriously damage his reputation, with concerns that the increase in the number of party members has not translated into an advantage in the campaign. Labour has fielded Sagal Abdi-wali, a 42-year-old council leader who arrived in the UK as a child refugee after her family fled the civil war in Somalia. Abdi-wali highlights her long-standing connection to the area, presenting herself as locally rooted, with experience in community work and housing policy.
The final days of the campaign were overshadowed by a split within the Green Party after members voted to adopt a policy equating Zionism with racism; the proposal passed with 1,022 votes in favour and 813 against, despite the opposition of four of the party's five MPs. Polanski, who is Jewish, left the conference early to campaign in north London and did not participate in the vote.
The result of the by-election could provide insight into whether the recovery in national support is translating to Labour's heartlands in urban areas, and whether the Greens can continue to attract younger and progressive voters. It will also test Polanski's argument that the Greens can pressure the government from the left, while Labour seeks to win back voters lost under Starmer.
