Sir Mark Rowley, Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, will state on Friday that the police are heading towards failure if the number of police forces in England and Wales is not reduced. Rowley will say that the police's ability to catch criminals is in collapse and public confidence is declining, according to The Guardian.
According to multiple sources, an official review commissioned by the government concluded that the number of police forces in England should be reduced from 39 to just nine 'super forces'. The review was conducted by former Metropolitan Police Commissioner Bernard Hogan-Howe and has not yet been published. Sources state that the establishment of nine regional forces plus one unified force for Wales is being considered. The proposed forces would sit above more than 150 local police units that would carry out most neighbourhood crime-fighting work.
Abolishing most of the 43 forces in England and Wales is considered key by the Hogan-Howe review and some police chiefs. Rowley and other leaders are concerned that the government may delay the most radical change in policing in seven decades. The Hogan-Howe review was completed in September and sent to the Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood. Government sources say the review will be published before Christmas, with a white paper expected in the new year.
The delay is understood to be linked to Andy Burnham's devolution agenda and his desire to 'restructure' the British state and reform local government, including the addition of new mayors. One police source said there is concern that Burnham may want to align new police structures with mayors, which could mean 20 or more forces.
Rowley will speak at an event in Manchester on Friday, while Greater Manchester's Chief Constable, Sir Stephen Watson, will advocate for a reduction in the number of forces. The event is titled 'The price of standing still is that criminals will win'. Some other chief constables told The Guardian that they were angered by the event organised by the Met and that they are sceptical of or do not support a major reduction to nine forces.
Reducing the number of forces in England and Wales is a central part of Mahmood's radical changes to policing. The Hogan-Howe report gives a range for the number of larger forces in the new policing landscape, from nine to 18, according to multiple sources. Rowley will say in his speech that public confidence has already fallen and that positive outcomes are now less than half of what they were 12 years ago. Positive outcomes are defined as crimes detected by police that lead to a charge, caution, out-of-court settlement or further action.
Rowley will say: 'I believe this is a choice between the third biggest revolution in British policing or an inevitable decline and fewer police officers on the ground.' He will add that the 43 forces in England and Wales should be reduced to eight or 10. 'Police have been trying to keep up, making do as best they can by patching up our broken model... But the model is creaking. We have 43 overstretched forces trying to do too much with too few resources,' Rowley will say.
Hogan-Howe believes that changes would free up the police to innovate quickly as new types of crime and threats emerge. The 43-force model oversees 43 police and crime commissioners and is criticised for being too slow and providing a 'postcode lottery' of services for victims of crime. Hogan-Howe publicly advocated for a reduction to nine forces 12 years ago.
Larger forces would deal with serious crime such as murder and serious sexual violence, as well as public order. They would also carry out back-office functions such as human resources, which are currently performed separately by each of the 43 forces. Above the regional forces would stand a new national force called the National Police Service. The government wants the National Police Service to be the home of counter-terrorism policing work as well as serious and organised crime. An advertisement for the national force commissioner is expected at the start of the new year.
There is division among police leaders over a major reduction in the number of forces. Some advocate voluntary mergers. The new white paper will allow for forced mass abolition of forces and the creation of new ones. Changes could lead to a huge force in south-east England stretching from the London borders to the south coast. A new north-west force would stretch from the Mersey to the Pennines, covering Greater Manchester, Merseyside and Lancashire, and would swallow up smaller forces such as Cheshire and Cumbria.
One chief constable told The Guardian: 'Everyone knows the 43 forces have to go. But the return on investment could take five or six years.' Another said: 'If I were the chief constable of a super force, it would be such a huge area that I wouldn't know anyone. I am worried it is too big.' Matthew Scott, the Conservative police and crime commissioner for Kent, said: 'It will take a lot of time tearing apart the fabric of the police for a suboptimal outcome.' The government plans to abolish police and crime commissioners as part of the changes. Another police leader asked: 'Where is the evidence that bigger forces are better?'
