France Football, the organiser of the Ballon d'Or, has launched an investigation after suspicions emerged of match-fixing in bets on the crypto-platform Polymarket linked to this year's selection of the world's best footballer. The organisers confirmed that an investigation is underway, and French police are to be informed of the case.
According to an investigation by French media outlet Upside, a group of 12 accounts correctly predicted the exact order of the top five footballers in this year's selection. This order saw Harry Kane win the Ballon d'Or, ahead of Kylian Mbappe, Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Lionel Messi. The disputed accounts on Polymarket predicted precisely this order: Kane, Mbappe, Yamal, Rodri, Messi. All five predictions proved correct.
On stakes of more than $264,000, the group of 12 accounts earned nearly $200,000, or approximately £149,000. Bets were placed on specific placements of individual footballers, not just the winner.
The accounts, according to the findings, were opened between 1 and 20 October and displayed very similar behavioural patterns. Seven of the accounts did not participate in any other betting markets, while six placed their first bet only 15 minutes after opening. This raised suspicion that the same person or an organised group stood behind the accounts, potentially possessing confidential information before the official announcement of the results. Researchers believe the accounts could be linked, although it has not yet been proven that the same person is behind all of them.
One of the accounts first bet on Kane's victory, then sold part of the position after the bet's value increased. The money was then redirected to betting on specific placements, including Yamal's third place. One account was the only one among the 12 identified to play all five placements in the correct order. It bet on Kane as the winner on 1 October, adding the other positions over the following weeks, with a total investment of around $14,000 on those five predictions.
Researchers tracked the movement of money associated with the accounts, and some transactions were linked to other accounts. The trail of one deposit led to the French financial platform Deblock. According to Upside, the Deblock platform managed to identify the person linked to one of the accounts after being provided with transaction data, but the identity of that person has not yet been published.
Upside provided the results of its investigation to France Football magazine, the organiser of the Ballon d'Or. The main question is whether certain bettors had access to confidential information about the final order before the ceremony. France Football previously stated that only a very small number of people know the winner before the award is given. There is currently no evidence of a leak of information, nor has it been established who is behind the disputed accounts.
